Demand for new equipment remains strong, buoyed by meaningfully improved freight rates. Initially driven by severe contractions in the driver supply following four years of trucking overcapacity, the Supreme Court’s Montgomery decision relating to broker liability, stricter ELD/HOS rule enforcement, and new carrier registration rules have added to supply constraints and rate momentum. The recovery in U.S. manufacturing and ongoing data center and utility buildout has aided the demand side of the equation, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“Underlining the robustness of the current demand environment has been the backlog boosting surge in tractor orders that began last December. Year-ago August tractor order backlogs fell to a nearly 13-year low. In our latest industry data, June-ending order backlogs were more than double year-ago levels,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “While the front-end market metrics have maxed out available 2026 capacity, tractor sales remained below replacement levels in 1H/26, as industry OEMs and suppliers work to bring more production capacity online. The rebound in tractor demand follows the four-year drop in profitability that culminated in generationally low carrier profit margins in 2025.”
Vieth concluded, “Many of the capacity constraints will persist and worsen, but the easing in freight demand seasonality in Q3 should temporarily take some of the pressure off capacity. Higher rates and driver pay will begin to offset these constraints, but the supply-side challenges for the industry are extraordinary as we move further into this new upcycle.”
