Class 8 preliminary orders in August totaled 16,800 units (19.6k seasonally adjusted), up 31% year over year on easy, tariff and carrier profitability impacted comps at this time last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, preliminary net orders retreated 35% month over month, but as ACT Research has consistently noted the past few months, weak orders do not necessarily mean weak demand. Rather, orders are running into oversubscribed 2026 backlogs and the corresponding 2026 build slot availability. To emphasize the point, July ending data showed H2/26 backlogs oversubscribed by ~35k units. There just isn’t room. Additionally, weak seasonality is a factor this month, as orders are typically slow in August just before OEMs open next year’s orderboards in September.
“Demand for new equipment remains strong, supported by meaningfully improved freight rates,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “While largely driven by severe contractions in the driver supply earlier this year, the Montgomery SCOTUS decision, stricter ELD/HOS rule enforcement, and new carrier registration rules have also added to supply constraints and rate improvement through 2026. Despite freight volume headwinds driven by weakness in housing and K-shaped consumer spending, the recovery in US manufacturing and the datacenter/utility buildout are marginally aiding the demand side of the freight equation.” Vieth continued, “Q2 earnings from the publicly traded group of TL carriers highlight the fleets’ profitability recovery, with aggregate net profit margins hitting a nearly-three-year high in Q2.”
Preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 37% year over year to 20,00 units (20.5k seasonally adjusted) in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, medium-duty orders have remained north of 20,000-unit levels the past four months, a marked improvement from the 16,000-unit order trend at the beginning of 2026. The timing of the order improvement suggests customers and dealers are working to get ahead of 2027 regulations, but the U.S.’s ongoing economic resilience, despite inflationary headwinds, is likely another factor supporting higher order levels.
