Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 4,000 units from October to November, but, at 20,500 units, were lower compared to last November, down 4% year over year, according to ACT Research. Seasonal adjustment at this point in the annual order cycle lowers November’s tally to 15,000 units, but that’s about 22% above October’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final November results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Since we’re still in the early stages of the traditional start to the order season, this month’s uptick was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data is below the November 2023 intake, given the softer demand recorded throughout this year,” Jennifer McNealy, director – CV market research and publications at ACT Research, said. “That said, and with the caution that one data point does not make a trend, perhaps November data are bearing witness to the anecdotal information about increased quotation activity that we have been hearing the past few months. However, as illustrated in the attached graph, this is typical year-end order behavior, so the stickiness of November’s ‘trend’ will be determined as more data arrive in the coming months.”
“Despite the order improvement, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories and high interest rates impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025,” McNealy said. “An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first few months of the new order cycle, but at least on order volumes through Q1/25.”
