Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 500 units from July to August, but at 7,700 units, were lower compared to last August, down 40% Y/Y, according to ACT Research. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle boosts August’s tally to 9,500 units, down about 7% from last month. Final August results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate should be within ±5% of the final order tally.
“This month’s data brings YTD 2024 US trailer net orders to 89,400 units, a 27% contraction when compared to the first eight months of 2023,” Jennifer McNealy, director, CV market research and publications at ACT Research, said. “Despite the sequential order improvement, August data continue to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, and already-filled dealer inventories. That said, it is important to remember that for orders, we remain in the weakest months of the annual cycle, suggesting stronger orders weren’t expected in August. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends on the next few months as OEMs open, or more fully open, their 2025 books.”
“While we do see fleets starting to make more money later this year, thereby increasing their ability to purchase equipment, that improvement is off a very low base as carrier profits in the first half of 2024 were at levels not seen since early 2010,” McNealy said. “Looking to 2025, the trailer industry is also pressured by Class 8-impacting regulations. As such, we continue to expect fleets’ willingness to spend will lean toward the purchase of new power units ahead of the EPA’s implementation of 2027 regulations.”
“Industry anecdotes suggest that the ‘pause button’ is expected to remain pressed through the remainder of 2024, and those on the frontlines are expressing concern about 2025, as well,” McNealy said. “The timing and size of 2025 order bookings is the wildcard. Additional indicators supporting the lack of optimism include still-elevated cancellations and backlogs lower than we’ve seen since late 2013, and despite positive momentum in the U.S. economy, lingering weak carrier profitability suggests little support for trailer orders to bolster backlogs into the end of 2024.”
