Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 4,400 units from August to September, but at 12,100 units, were lower compared to last September, down 61% year over year, according to ACT Research. Seasonal adjustment at this point in the annual order cycle lowers September’s tally to 10,700 units, but that’s nearly 13% above August’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final September results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Since September is the traditional start to the order season, this month’s uptick was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data is significantly below the September 2023 intake, given the soft demand recorded throughout this year,” Jennifer McNealy, director CV market research and publications at ACT Research, said. “September’s data brings YTD 2024 U.S. trailer net orders to 101,600 units, a 34% contraction when compared to the first nine months of 2023, and puts Q3/24 net orders at just 27,000 units, 51% lower than the same quarter last year.”
“Despite the sequential order improvement, September data continue to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, and already-filled dealer inventories. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on one month, but on the next few months as OEMs more fully open their 2025 books,” McNealy said. “Industry anecdotes suggest that the ‘pause button’ is expected to remain pressed through the remainder of 2024, and those on the frontlines are expressing concern about 2025. The timing and size of 2025 order bookings is the wildcard. Additional indicators supporting the lack of optimism include still-elevated cancellations and backlogs lower than we’ve seen in a decade. Despite positive momentum in the U.S. economy, lingering weak carrier profitability suggests little support for trailer orders to bolster 2025 backlogs into the end of 2024.”
