Aggregate DAT contract truckload rates were unchanged month-over-month in August at $2.52 per mile, up 18% year over year, as tight capacity and new regulatory hurdles continue to shape the U.S. freight market, according to the latest release of ACT Research’s Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report for September 2026. Despite a recent, seasonally impacted, dip in spot rates, net fuel, the market remains supply-constrained, with the ACT Driver Availability Index tightening to 35.9 in August and spot equipment capacity at decade lows.
“Tighter capacity and a modest improvement in demand are likely to keep upward pressure on freight rates over the next 12 to 18 months,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “New broker liability laws and FMCSA driver regulations are raising barriers to entry, and while Class 8 tractor production is increasing, fleet growth will remain slow as replacement demand and elevated exports limit expansion.”
Denoyer continued, “While the recent $120 billion in tariff refunds may provide a temporary boost to freight demand and support the long-awaited inventory restock, the underlying supply constraints remain the primary drivers of current market dynamics. With contract rates now offering a significant cost advantage over private fleets and ongoing regulatory changes ahead, we expect the ‘stronger for longer’ for-hire rate cycle to persist, even as risks from rising fuel prices and interest rates remain elevated.”
