Owing to myriad negative factors, ACT Research continues to pull back on out-year expectations. Factors include weak carrier profitability and still tractionless freight rates, expected tariff-driven goods inflation, a freight air pocket likely following the goods pull-forward in H1/25 and uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy, and the status of the EPA’s low NOx Clean Truck regulation, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“This is the time of the year that heavy truck orders are weak. That seasonal weakness has been compounded by the aftershocks of April’s tariff and policy announcements, which continue to reverberate. Policy uncertainty coupled with still weak for-hire rate and profitability fundamentals, have exacerbated that seasonal order weakness,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “Using June data, the tractor order trends for the past 12m, 6m SAAR and 3m SAAR are 176k, 129k and 97k, respectively.”
Despite front-end order weakness, tractor sales have remained firm, rising since the onset of tariffs, as companies seek to take advantage of tariff-free equipment in inventory. With tariff-free inventory increasingly consumed, retail sales are expected to cool in the coming months as prices move higher.
“Much like the tractor market, vocational orders continue to trend lower, with the 12m, 6m SAAR and 3m SAAR order levels at 86k, 60k and 54k units, respectively,” Vieth said.
