The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving, according to ACT Research. Since the start of the trade war, momentum has slowed sharply, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come. As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “We see growing evidence of private fleets reining in capacity after a major expansion from 2022 – 2024. Class 8 tractor production will drop by more than 30% from 1H to 2H this year, and this reversal will eventually support a recovery in for-hire demand.”
