In September, the industry reported an all-time best month for heavy vocational truck orders at 20,000 units (NA, NSA). That was followed by 9,500 orders in October. With preliminary NA Class 8 orders at a 37K topline in November, it is not too much of a stretch to assume another 9K to 10K vocational orders arrived last month, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“Last month, we boosted our vocational truck outlook for the 2025 and 2026 on solid fundamentals: U.S. industrial policy and infrastructure spending stimulus plans have manufacturing and private construction expenditures running at record levels,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “And much of the ~$2 trillion in stimulus (CHIPS, IRA, IIJA) put in place in 2021 and 2022 continues to be deployed into the economy, providing healthy tailwinds. To date, only around 40% of that money has been deployed. With well supported end markets and technology forcing regs on the horizon, vocational truck buyers not only have a willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleets, but clearly, the ability as well. While we always caution that one month does not make a trend, orders the past two months suggest queuing for 2026 (EPA’27) has begun. With tractor demand suspect, vocational truck production appears to be well supported into 2025.”
