With well-supported end markets and technology forcing regulations on the horizon, vocational truck buyers not only have a willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleets, but clearly, the ability as well, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“While we always caution that one month does not make a trend, September’s orders suggest queuing for the limited build slots between now and the beginning of 2027 has begun. With tractor demand suspect, vocational truck production should continue to surge into 2025,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “We have discussed ad nauseum this year the bifurcated Class 8 market. On the flip-side, U.S. and Canadian tractor markets remain awash in capacity due to ongoing tractor retail sales strength in 2024 holding freight rates to only incremental gains cycle-to-date. After a 10-quarter elevator ride down, carrier profitability rebounded modestly in Q3, as the economy continued to generate good freight volumes and capacity continued to slowly exit the market. With the expectation that tractor sales will slow in early 2025, one of the missing pieces of the recovery-to-date, capacity rationalization, will finally fall into place. Even as we more fully recognize the depth of the macro-economic support lifting heavy vocational equipment demand, the tractor market remains under pressure.”
