Credit & Risk in 2025: Managing Changing Credit Conditions through Experience, Discipline and Innovation



In 2025, ongoing economic uncertainty, from tariffs to uneven industry trends, is pushing credit and risk leaders in equipment finance to sharpen their approach. As businesses rethink spending and lenders adjust their standards, the credit landscape is anything but steady. In this Q&A, leaders from 36th Street Capital and Amur Equipment Finance share how they’re dealing with changing credit conditions, rising equipment costs and market swings while using their experience and smart strategies to support customers and manage risk.

How would you describe the current credit environment for equipment finance — tightening, loosening or bifurcating across different borrower types or asset classes?

ERIC MCGRIFF: From my perspective, the current credit environment is bifurcated. We are seeing tightening in industries adversely impacted by tariffs and broader market uncertainty. At the same time, delayed CAPEX spending has led to softer volumes. With more players in the market and lower demand, we are experiencing heightened pricing and credit competition. Any loosening of credit appears to be selective — executed on a case-by-case basis rather than as part of a broad-based easing of standards.

ANDREA ZANA: The equipment finance market touches nearly every sector of the U.S. economy and is inherently cyclical. We feel confident operating in this space because it’s where we’ve excelled for over 30 years — funding businesses where equipment is essential. Our long history and deep experience have prepared us to navigate shifts in the market while continuing to support our partners and customers with strength and stability.

Right now, we have a higher bar in industries facing headwinds, such as transportation, and we’re targeting other growing sectors by offering specialized underwriting rules, such as in manufacturing, construction, franchise, etc. to best support the needs in those segments.

A-credits have become an even more significant percentage of our business, although it has been a sweet spot for many years. As Rich Chenitz, Chief Commercial Officer stated in a recent press release, “Our focus is on intentional growth and developing products and service that resonate with our increasingly up-market and diversified customer base. In 2025, we have been thrilled to see a record share of originations in our A-credit and in our construction, industrial and vocational (CIV) segments.”

What are the most significant risks on your radar right now — macroeconomic, industry-specific or borrower behavior? How are you preparing for them?

MCGRIFF: The most significant risks stem from the impact of tariffs — on industries, supply chains and overall economic stability. The unpredictable nature of tariff implementation has created uncertainty for business leaders, prompting delays or revisions to CAPEX and expansion plans. This could weigh on GDP growth in 2025. In response, we are closely monitoring higher-risk segments, managing portfolio concentrations and assessing borrower exposure and resilience on a deal-by-deal basis.

ZANA: By and large macroeconomic risks are highest on our list. At a high level, demand is mixed, with many buyers worried about tariffs and taking the wait and see approach. Like around COVID, preserving liquidity seems to be at the top of mind for small and medium-size businesses.

While the impact of uncertainty on business decisions is real, we recognize that broad characterizations are only partially useful. The benefit of being a diversified lender with a very broad market reach like Amur is our ability to focus on sectors with specific positive fundamentals, and our ability to slow down in areas that do not offer an attractive risk-benefit proposition.

Are you seeing shifts in underwriting standards or app-only limits in response to economic conditions or equipment cost inflation? What is driving those changes?

MCGRIFF: Yes, there are noticeable shifts in underwriting standards, particularly within industries facing pressure in today’s environment. Competitive pressures are also influencing behavior, with some lenders increasing advance rates and taking on larger obligor exposures to win business.

ZANA: We’ve recently made some changes including in underwriting standards and application only limits. The driving force behind these changes is our commitment to being more responsive to customer needs and providing options that work for both customers and vendors. Our goal is to be the partner of choice as often as possible while staying true to our strategic focus and credit standards.

Underwriting standards are tightening where appropriate, but we’re also being thoughtful about where we can introduce flexibility, particularly for well-established businesses with stable revenues and a compelling reason to invest in new equipment, even in uncertain times. I’m especially proud of the new programs we’ve rolled out in our CIV segment, which provide that flexibility and a seamless experience without compromising the integrity of our credit decisioning.

We’ve selectively increased our applicationonly ceilings to better align with the rising costs of essential equipment. When paired with a seamless customer experience and the right credit profile, these changes are helping our customers grow while allowing us to continue making smart, responsible lending decisions.

How are lenders adjusting to volatility in asset values, especially in sectors like trucking or manufacturing, where price and demand swings are sharp?

MCGRIFF: In highly volatile sectors — especially trucking — some lenders are scaling back originations or adopting a more conservative approach. This includes tightening credit standards and reassessing asset values and residual assumptions on a more frequent basis.

ZANA: We finance liquid assets from established vendors. This strategic choice allows Amur to rely upon the vendor’s proven reputation in selling quality, fairly valued assets, but also facilitates our own price verification inquiries whenever necessary.

Given our focus on established businesses, we continue to be comfortable providing zero down approvals in most instances, because we are supporting a very critical asset investment decision by an experienced equipment buyer.

What lessons are you applying from recent sector-specific stress (e.g., transportation) to guide portfolio management today?

MCGRIFF: Transportation is inherently cyclical, and while the exact timing of downturns is hard to predict, they are inevitable. Risk leaders must prepare in advance: watch for early warning signs, define strategies to protect the existing portfolio and adjust new origination criteria accordingly. Managing cyclical industries requires a “through-the-cycle” approach — financial models and business plans must be built to withstand the full economic cycle.

ZANA: The market is cyclical and as I noted earlier, this is an area where we have significant experience. We are still committed to the transportation market, although it is a smaller part of our portfolio than in years past due to the much faster growth in other sectors. Additionally, we are focusing on only the most experienced and established customers with a proven ability to navigate this deceptively complex market.

Time has taught us to hold steady, focus on maximizing value on the back end with ways to support our customers with information, servicing, insurance, etc. For those accounts that don’t respond in time, our collections team thoughtfully and methodically reaches out to customers to identify the root cause of their cash flow issues and to help them find a solution.

How is AI affecting credit decision-making, risk monitoring, or fraud detection in your organization? Are there any tools or innovations you see as game changers?

ZANA: AI will not replace our people in our decision making, but we’re working on ways to use it to better organize, accelerate and increase the consistency and accuracy of repetitive processes that don’t significantly benefit from personal interaction and nuance.

We’re proud of the strides we’re making with new tools and partnerships that make our team quick and efficient while taking necessary precautions to minimize risk. Fraudsters are getting more creative and tech savvy, and so we constantly introduce new tools to stay ahead.

We target two hours for our credit decision turnaround time, which we meet thanks to our experienced underwriters’ thorough review of each file. With the introduction of AI and other automation tools, turnaround times can only improve, along with the ability to perform more analysis in less time.

What practical advice would you offer to credit and risk teams across the industry right now? Are there specific steps they should take to stay ahead of evolving market dynamics?

MCGRIFF: Stay anchored in the core principles of sound risk management. Focus on portfolio diversification, actively monitor industry and obligor concentrations, identify emerging stresses and conduct sensitivity analyses. Regularly reassess reserve adequacy. Most importantly, stay informed, be adaptable and maintain a disciplined approach — this is when strong risk fundamentals matter most.

ZANA: Stay true to your roots. Hone your expertise and market knowledge. Cultivate and build teams so that they feel ownership and pride in their work. Our teams enjoy coming to work every day because they see how critical their activities are to the company’s success, and they share a sense of camaraderie that helps them grow and be their best.

Lean into what makes you unique. Deepen your expertise and market knowledge, always look for the opportunity to improve. Surround yourself with a team that is connected to the mission. At Amur, we focus on cultivating a culture where people take pride in their work and feel a sense of ownership. Our teams enjoy coming to work each day because they understand how vital their contributions are to the company’s success, and they feel a strong sense of camaraderie that pushes them to grow and bring their best. •

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