The U.S. economy showed notable resilience in the second quarter in the face of significant uncertainty, according to the national Citizens Business Conditions Index. The Q2/25 index reading of 50.2 indicates that business conditions remained modestly positive during the period.
Despite the challenges of trade and geopolitical upheaval, corporate revenue trends were generally healthy in Q2/25. Citizens’ proprietary data showed continued revenue growth across most sectors, with a notable rebound in utilities after a soft start to the year.
“The second quarter was characterized by volatility as businesses navigated a dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical environment,” Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens, said. “However, by and large, companies have adjusted to the new normal and client sentiment is feeling much stronger for the back half of the year.”
After a pull forward of activity in anticipation of tariffs during the first quarter, economic conditions did soften in some geographies with international borders, such as the Northeast. However, macroeconomic factors remained steady at a national level.
- New business applications were neutral to the index.
- National employment data, as measured by initial jobless claims, remained healthy but was also neutral to the index.
- The ISM Services Index remained slightly expansionary, as consumers continue to show their resilience.
- The ISM Manufacturing Index contracted, reflecting trade policy uncertainty.
Overall, the Q2/25 CBCI reveals remarkable stability in the business environment.
“While there have been some tariff impacts on the margins, the economy weathered the volatility of the second quarter incredibly well,” Merlis said. “Companies appear poised for growth in the third quarter and beyond.”
