The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI), released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA), showed that recent cooling was more about normalization than a weakening of fundamentals. The two-year trend in activity remains upward, and the year-end forecast for total new business activity is at an all-time high. Financial conditions remain healthy, positioning the industry to weather the recent resurgence in geopolitical uncertainty and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026.
- Total new business volume (NBV) among surveyed ELFA member companies was $10.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Year-to-date NBV rose by 11.3% relative to the same period in 2025.
- Year-over-year, NBV rose by 17.2% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
“Equipment demand rebounded in June, and our forecast for total deal activity at year-end reached an all-time high,” Leigh Lytle, outgoing president and CEO of ELFA, said. “2025 started off with a bang, and some cooling was always expected. Even with some easing from peak levels, business activity over the first half of 2026 is up over 11% from the same period last year. Financial conditions remain healthy. The industry-wide delinquency rate dropped to a multi-year low, and losses remain modest. As has been the case for over a year, the industry remains well-positioned to meet the resurgence of tariffs, hostilities in the Middle East, and potential Fed rate increases later this year.”
Demand rebounded and continued to trend upward. Total NBV ticked up after four straight months of decline, increasing 2.5% month-over-month to reach $10.5 billion in June. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity added by banks, independents, and captives in a given month. The June volume aligns with the strong pace observed during the second half of 2025, and total equipment deal volume in the CFI is forecasted to reach $129 billion in 2026, the highest level recorded in any year since the survey began in 2006.
Small ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an important barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small ticket deals grew by $3.3 billion, down 3.9% from May. Year-to-date, small ticket deal activity is up 25.8% from the same period in 2025.
Activity at banks was $4.6 billion, while activity at captives and independents was $2.9 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. The rate of new deal growth at all three industry groups declined in June due to statistical artifacts. The ELFA re-estimates seasonal adjustments each month to maximize data accuracy, so historical data may shift. The month-over-month declines in the industry groups were due to the re-estimation of seasonal factors.
Credit approval rate approached its all-time high. The industry-wide average rose 0.6 percentage points to 79.5% in June. The average small ticket approval rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 80.7%. The rate at banks increased by 1.4 percentage points. The rate at captives declined, while the rate at independents was unchanged.
Delinquencies fell sharply, but losses edged up. The overall delinquency rate fell to 1.7% in June, dropping just below the narrow band of 1.8% to 2.1% that it’s been in for the last two years. The rate at banks dropped by 0.48 percentage points, more than offsetting the sharp rise in the prior month. The rate at captives and independents both fell.
The overall loss rate increased by 0.05 percentage points to 0.54%. The average loss rate for small ticket deals was essentially unchanged at 0.72%. The rates at banks and captives were essentially flat, while the rate at independents rose by 0.25 percentage points.
Industry Sentiment & Executive Outlook
The Monthly Confidence Index tracking executive sentiment held steady at 63.7 in July, unchanged from June.
“Customers largely looked past Middle East tensions, tariffs and energy spikes last quarter, while record high consumer debt and the prospect of gradually higher interest rates remained the biggest external pressures,” Kyin Lok, CEO of Dext Capital, said. “Even so, customer health remains steady, portfolio performance remains solid and the booming stock market reflects continued economic confidence and resilience in a new reality where change is the only constant. Over the next three to six months, we expect healthy equipment finance demand, led by accelerating AI data center investment and a gradual rebound in specialty transportation.”
Technical Note: New business volume data are concurrently seasonally adjusted each month to capture the latest seasonal patterns. Data in previous months and years may change due to updated seasonal factors.
