The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI) released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) showed that demand for equipment strengthened for a third consecutive month in September, despite continued political and economic uncertainty. Growth in total new business volumes (NBV) is expected to reach $114 billion in 2025, one of the strongest years on record, and should benefit from additional Fed rate cuts heading into the holiday season.
- Total NBV among surveyed ELFA member companies was $10.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, an increase of 4.0% from August.
- NBV year-to-date contracted by 1.8% relative to the same period in 2024.
- Year-over-year, NBV increased by 8.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
- The change in NBV suggests a 1.2% increase in new durable goods orders in September.
“Despite the government shutdown’s delay of key economic data, our latest CFI data indicates that equipment demand was strong at the end of the third quarter,”Leigh Lytle, president and CEO at ELFA, said. “The current pace of new business volumes has put the industry on track for one of its best years ever. And financial conditions remain healthy. Delinquency and loss rates fell in the latest data and remain consistent with a sector that is unfazed by the turmoil of 2025. With the Fed resuming its easing cycle, I expect demand to remain strong and financial conditions to improve further. That will give the equipment finance industry a lot of momentum heading into 2026.”
Equipment demand increased at its fastest pace in 2025. Total NBV grew by $10.5 billion in September, the largest single-month increase in nine months. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity that banks, independents, and captives added in a given month. The strong September increase pushed the forecast for total new volume growth in 2025 to just over $114 billion, down from last year’s record pace, but in line with the strong growth experienced in 2022 and 2023.
Small ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an important barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small ticket deals grew by $3.2 billion, an increase of 0.4% from the prior month. Growth in small ticket deals has been remarkably stable since February of 2025, growing by an average pace of $3.2 billion over that period.
Of the three institution types, banks experienced the largest increase in new volumes in September, rising by $5.3 billion. Growth at captives and independents rose by $2.8 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Those are roughly the same rates of growth as in the August data. Year-to-date new volume growth is up by 7.7% at banks relative to the first nine months of 2024, but down by 18.6% and 3.7% at captives and independents, respectively.
Credit approvals continued their upward march. The average credit approval rate rose to 79.2% in September, the highest reading since 2016. The average small ticket approval rate edged down slightly to 82.0%. The rate at banks remained elevated by historical standards, posting a rate of 80.0% in the latest data. The rate at captives fell to 82.9%, while the rate at independents rose to 70.5%.
Delinquency and loss rates both declined. The overall delinquency rate reversed course in September, falling by 0.19 percentage points to 1.9%. That’s the lowest level since June and completely reverses the combined 0.19 percentage point increase in July and August.
The overall loss rate declined by 0.12 percentage points to 0.48% in September. The average loss rate for small ticket deals rose slightly to 0.63%.
The average loss and delinquency rates at banks and independents dropped, while the rate at captives was essentially unchanged from the prior month.
The Monthly Confidence Index from ELFA’s affiliate, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation tracks the sentiment of executives in the industry. The index remains at a heightened level for the fifth consecutive month, relatively unchanged at 60.1 in October from 59.9 in September.
