The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI) released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) showed that equipment demand remained strong in September. New business volume was essentially unchanged from August, making September the third-strongest month in the survey’s history, and the full-year forecast held steady at an all-time high. Financial conditions remained healthy, with the delinquency rate falling to its lowest level since April 2023. Additional Fed rate hikes and elevated economic uncertainty remain risks, but strong demand and healthy credit quality leave the industry well positioned heading into the final quarter of the year.
- Total new business volume (NBV) among surveyed ELFA member companies was $11.8 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Year-to-date NBV rose by 17.0% relative to the same period in 2025.
- Year-over-year, NBV rose by 14.7% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
“It’s becoming hard to describe just how strong deal volumes have been this year,” James Cress, acting president and CEO of ELFA, said. “New activity was almost $12 billion in September, the third-highest reading in the survey’s more than 20-year history. The loss rate ticked up but remains range-bound at a level consistent with healthy financial conditions, and the overall delinquency rate fell to its lowest level in over three years. The path of interest rates remains highly uncertain, which could translate into even higher borrowing costs. But the tailwinds to demand are so strong, and financial conditions so stable, that it would take a significant downshift in economic conditions to slow demand over the last quarter of the year.”
Demand held steady near record levels. Total NBV was $11.8 billion in September, down 0.7% from August. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity added by banks, independents, and captives in a given month. September was the third-highest month on record, behind only July and August. New volumes totaled nearly $38 billion over the last three months, about 20% more than in the three months spanning April to June. The full-year 2026 forecast was essentially unchanged at $137.6 billion. That would be the highest level recorded in any year since the survey began in 2006 and 14.3% above the previous all-time high set in 2024.
Small ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an important barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small ticket deals totaled $4.5 billion, up 7.2% from August. September tied December 2025 as the fourth-highest month on record. Year to date, small ticket deal activity is up 27.2% from the same period in 2025.
Activity at banks was $5.5 billion, down 8.0% from August’s all-time high but still above its average pace over the first half of the year. Activity at captives rose 9.3% to $4.0 billion, their second-highest month on record after July. Activity at independents was $2.1 billion, down 3.7% from August and slightly below its average over the 12 months ending in June.
Credit approval rate rebounded. The industry-wide average rose 2.4 percentage points to 77.7% in September, its largest monthly increase since October 2023. The average small ticket approval rate rose 1.8 percentage points to 80.0%. Rates at independents and captives rose 5.9 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively, while the rate at banks edged up 0.2 percentage point.
Delinquencies fell to a multi-year low, while losses rose. The overall delinquency rate fell to 1.6% in September, its lowest level since April 2023 and down 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier. The rate at banks fell by 0.27 percentage points to 0.97%, its lowest level since June 2023. Rates at captives and independents changed little.
The overall loss rate increased by 0.04 percentage points to 0.48%, unchanged from a year earlier and well within its range over the past two years. The average loss rate for small ticket deals rose by 0.11 percentage points to 0.76%. The rate at captives rose by 0.12 percentage points, and the rate at independents edged up, while the rate at banks held at 0.28%.
Industry Confidence: The Monthly Confidence Index tracks the sentiment of executives in the industry. The October index eased to 60.4 from 62.4 in September.
“Uncertainty around rates and community inputs can impact how the industry accesses equipment financing,” Nicholas Sandler, co-president and co-head of diversified credit at Eldridge Capital Management, said. “Demand is deep in this market, and as traditional lenders pull back under capital and regulatory constraints, we’re seeing more customers turn to specialized providers who can deliver customized, flexible and dependable solutions. We expect this shift to continue over the next three to six months, favoring providers that stay competitive on price and disciplined on structure.”
Technical Note: New business volume data are concurrently seasonally adjusted each month to capture the latest seasonal patterns. Data in previous months and years may change due to updated seasonal factors.
