The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation released its July 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI), revealing a third consecutive month of increasing confidence in the equipment finance market. The index, which provides a qualitative assessment from key executives within the $1.3 trillion sector, climbed to 61.6 in July, up from 58.2 in June.
“As we navigate the second half of 2025, concerns around inflationary pressures driven by escalating tariffs and the economic drag from intensified immigration enforcement are becoming increasingly pronounced,” Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO of Elevex Capital and Equipment Leasing and Finance Association member, said. “These forces are not only straining supply chains, but also constraining labor availability—two critical components for productivity and growth in the commercial equipment finance sector. However, there is a silver lining on the horizon. The push for onshoring and domestic manufacturing, while not an immediate remedy, holds long-term promise. As companies reconfigure supply chains and invest in U.S.-based production, we anticipate a resurgence in demand for equipment financing—particularly in automation, logistics, and infrastructure. Looking ahead, the groundwork being laid today for a more self-reliant industrial base could usher in a new era of opportunity for the equipment finance industry.”
July 2025 Survey Results:
- Business Conditions: When assessing the next four months, 37.5% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve (up from 29.6% in June). The majority, 58.3%, believe business conditions will remain the same (down from 59.3% in June) and 4.2% believe business conditions will worsen (down from 11.1% in June).
- Capex Demand: For the next four months, 37.5% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (up from 29.6% in June). 58.3% expect demand to remain the same (up from 55.6%), and 4.2% believe demand will decline (down from 14.8% in June).
- Access to Capital: Over the next four months, 16.7% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, a decrease from 18.5% in June. The majority,70.8%, anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, down from 81.5% the previous month. 8.3% expect “less” access to capital, up from none from June.
- Employment: Regarding employment over the next four months, 20.8% of executives expect to hire more employees, a decrease from 33.3% in June. 70.8% foresee no change in headcount (up from 66.7% last month), and 8.3% expect to hire fewer employees, up from none in June.
- S. Economy: 8.3% of leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from none in June. 91.7% assess it as “fair,” down from 96.3% last month, with none evaluating it as “poor” (down from 3.7% in June).
- Economic Outlook: Over the next six months, 41.7% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a notable increase from 29.6% in June. Additionally, 41.7% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same” (down from 51.9%), and 16.7% believe economic conditions will worsen, a slight decrease from 18.5% last month.
- Business Development Spending: Over the next six months, 25% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, up from 18.5% in June. 75% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending (down from 77.8%), with none believing there will be a decrease in spending (down from 3.7% last month).
“I am optimistic about the commercial equipment leasing and finance industry because of the results,” David Normandin, CLFP, president and CEO of Wintrust Specialty Finance, said. “Specifically, 2025 has been a strong year of origination growth and portfolio performance that is within guidance and improving. While sentiment has been low, it is improving to better align with actually what I see happening in the market. I am cautiously optimistic that 2025 will be a solid year for the industry.”
“Tariffs do not appear to be driving inflation as many economists projected,” James D. Jenks, CEO of Global Finance and Leasing Services, said. “Any fed funds rate reduction would help increase economic activity.”
