The business jet market continued to stabilize in Q3/24 after experiencing unprecedented utilization and demand in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Global Jet Capital’s Q3/24 Market Brief.
Year-over-year, there was a decrease in flight operations, an increase in inventory levels and a decline in OEM order intake. Despite this shift, the market continues to show strength and resilience. Driven by strong new deliveries, transactions leveled off following declines in 2023. OEMs reported strong backlogs. Flight operations stayed above pre-pandemic levels, and business jet availability — particularly for newer, more desirable aircraft — remained low. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment experienced steady growth and declining inflation levels, despite ongoing headwinds. Overall, the industry is well-prepared to handle any potential market disruptions.
Q3/24 HIGHLIGHTS
- Global economic growth continued through Q3/24, and central banks are now lowering interest rates.
- Flight operations declined 1% year-over-year in Q3/24 but were 1% higher than Q2/24 and 15% above Q3/19 pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting an enduring expansion in the user base for business aviation.
- OEM revenue increased 15.3% year-over-year in Q3/24 while backlogs remained high at $45.6 billion.
- Transactions were stable through the end of Q3/24 as OEMs continued to work towards resolving supply chain and labor constraints and activity began to pick up in the pre-owned market.
- As more aircraft were listed for sale, inventory increased in Q3/24.
- Most aircraft models continued to experience depreciation in line with historical norms during Q3/24. However, younger aircraft experienced less depreciation than older aircraft.
Many of the headwinds that affected the economy in 2023 persisted in Q3/24, including the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza and high interest rates. Other factors that may negatively affect economic growth in Q4/24 include continued de-globalization, trade conflicts, major elections in countries making up 38% of global GDP and slower-than-expected growth in China.
Despite these headwinds, global GDP growth was remarkably stable at around 2.7% over the first three quarters of 2024. Central banks were comfortable with inflation levels and began lowering interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue to lower rates until mid-2025 while European central banks are expected to lower rates throughout 2025. Other notable tailwinds include strengthening economies in East Asia, South Asia and Central America and recovery in the Eurozone from slow growth at the end of 2023. In addition, the U.S. labor market has remained more resilient than many economists expected, assuaging concerns of a near-term economic slowdown. As such, the global economy is expected to remain stable for the remainder of 2024.
