The ongoing trade war and rising economic uncertainty may end up tightening freight capacity and pushing rates higher, according to ACT Research’s latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

While recession risks are increasing and freight demand remains soft, ACT Research points to signs that the long downturn in the for-hire freight market may be easing.

“Even the EPA low-NOx standards initially promulgated by the first Trump administration planned to go into effect in 2027 are now under review,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “The significant private fleet prebuying in preparation for these rules in recent years is set to end or even reverse as tariffs hit, which is likely to reduce equipment supply.”

Denoyer added that while demand is still weak, trade and regulatory uncertainty are also acting as supply shocks, which could lead to freight rate inflation later this year.

Shippers had built up inventory ahead of tariff implementation, but deteriorating consumer fundamentals suggest continued weakness in the for-hire freight sector. With consumers making pre-tariff purchases and bracing for inflation, spending is likely to decline in the near term.

Denoyer noted that U.S. Class 8 tractor sales fell below replacement levels in early 2025, a sign that fleet capacity is finally tightening after years of expansion. Though this has yet to significantly impact the for-hire market, seasonal increases in demand and constrained supply may help stabilize rates.

The monthly 61-page Freight Forecast report includes analysis and projections for key freight indicators such as the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type in the U.S. and Canada. It covers truckload (TL), less-than-truckload (LTL), and intermodal markets, with forecasts spanning monthly to multi-year horizons.

ACT Research is a provider of commercial vehicle and freight market data and analysis for North America and China. Its clients include major truck and trailer manufacturers, suppliers, banks, and investment firms.