Wolters Kluwer published the February 2025 edition of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds only 10% of the panel’s 47 economists anticipating a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. Additionally, a majority of panelists (80%) believe that the expected increase in tariffs will provide a significant boost to U.S. inflation.
Highlights of the survey include:
- Only 15% of economists believe that the next Fed rate cut will occur in May. Instead, a majority (50%) of panelists anticipate a June cut, while 23% believe that the next cut won’t be initiated until later in the year.
- The February consensus forecast now places a 48% probability of inflation reaccelerating meaningfully over the next six months.
- Economists anticipate that PCE inflation to rise to 2.5% in the current quarter, well above the Fed’s 2% target, and to remain at that pace through the first quarter of next year.
- All but one of the 47 economists surveyed believe that AI will eventually disrupt the labor market, reducing labor demand in some sectors while increasing it in others. However, a majority (55%) don’t expect the impact to be felt for 3-5 years.
