Truck freight volumes and spending continued to drop in Q2/24, but at a slower pace than recent quarters, according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index. Shipments increased in three regions (the West, Northeast and Southeast) on a quarterly basis, the first time that multiple regions have experienced increased volume in more than a year.
“Our data is showing some signs that the very challenging freight market could be nearing a bottom,” Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at U.S. Bank, said. “There are still headwinds for carriers, but at least in terms of volume, there are some bright spots across the country.”
In Q2/24, shipments nationally dropped 2.2% while spending contracted 2.8% on a quarterly basis. The declines were less severe than the first quarter, when spending fell 16.8% and shipping volume dropped 7.8%. Still, Q2/24 shipments were down 22.4% compared to a year earlier and spend was off 23.5%.
“Trucking companies are facing a triple challenge of lower volumes due to consumer preference to spend on experiences versus goods, suppressed rates and higher costs,” Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, said. “This situation is likely to cause further capacity reductions in the industry.”
Data
National Data
Shipments
Linked quarter: -2.2%
Year over year: -22.4%
Spending
Linked quarter: -2.8%
Year over year: -23.5%
Regional Data
West
Shipments
Linked quarter: 1.5%
Year over year: -19.8%
Spending
Linked quarter: -2.3%
Year over year: -25.5%
This marked the first sequential volume gain for the West since the first quarter of 2022. Seaport volume as well as truck-transported exports and imports in the region have increased, which boosts truck freight.
Southwest
Shipments
Linked quarter: -13.6%
Year over year: -26.8%
Spending
Linked quarter: -1.4%
Year over year: -25.5%
The Southwest truck freight market has struggled the last several quarters after outperforming other regions in parts of 2022 and 2023. The 1.4% quarterly spending drop was much better than the first quarter, when spending was down -16.5%. Cross border trucking in the region has been one of the few bright spots for the market.
Midwest
Shipments
Linked quarter: -2.7%
Year over year: -20.3%
Spending
Linked quarter: -6.0%
Year over year: -23.1%
One of only two regions to post a quarterly decline in volumes, the Midwest experienced sequential declines in five consecutive quarters. The findings align with flat or slightly declining economic indicators in the region.
Northeast
Shipments
Linked quarter: 2.7%
Year over year: -25.2%
Spending
Linked quarter: -0.1%
Year over year: -26.9%
This was the first time in two years the Northeast experienced a quarterly increase in shipments. According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, spending on goods have held steady in the region, which supports truck freight.
Southeast
Shipments
Linked quarter: 1.8%
Year over year: -22.9%
Spending
Linked quarter: -0.9%
Year over year: -20.3%
Southeast shipments increased for the first time in three years. The region is experiencing improved home construction, retail demand and seaport volume.
To see the full report including in-depth regional data, visit the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index website.
