The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in July, as freight volumes ticked up and capacity declined.
The volume index turned positive for the first time in six months, rising to 52.3 (seasonally adjusted) in July, from 41.2 in June, as the April tariff delays spurred another round of pull forwards ahead of August deadlines. This lines up with near-record loaded imports in July, similar to H1/22 levels.
“Consumer spending continues to outpace inflation, but consumers have so far been insulated from price increases, as tariff costs have yet to be fully passed on to the consumer,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “This won’t last much longer, as retailers have been raising prices in recent weeks, and with producer prices rising, passthroughs seem set to rise soon. On the positive side, several recent signals suggest the private fleet insourcing phenomena may be starting to reverse.”
The capacity index decreased 0.8 points month over month, to 46.0 in July from 46.8 in June.
“Publicly traded TL carriers’ profit margins remain near to the lowest levels since 2010, and on top of that, steel, aluminum and parts tariffs have added thousands to the cost of a tractor,” Vieth said. “As a result of challenging operating conditions, trade/economic uncertainty and equipment cost increases, many fleets are opting to significantly reduce capital spending in 2025.”
The supply-demand balance increased in July to 56.4 (seasonally adjusted), from 44.4 in June, on an increase in volumes and a downtick in capacity.
“The recent increase is likely temporary as demand surged ahead of August tariff announcements, but the payback period following multiple freight pull forwards is poised to begin,” Vieth said. “Even with modest pass through, the inflationary effects of tariffs will likely lead to more goods demand softness in the months to come.”
