The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in December, as freight volumes and capacity increased.
The volume index increased 7.0 points to 61.6 seasonally adjusted in December, a four-year high, as successive winter storms in the Midwest at the beginning of the month tightened capacity and positive consumer holiday spending aided demand.
“While the run up during November and December is likely to pare some of the gains as weather warms, the sharp surge indicates the elasticity of supply is getting tighter. Additionally, inflation and volumes could be aided by the Supreme Court striking down IEEPA tariffs,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “However, whether the decision is made tomorrow, or mid-year, will have an impact on freight in 2026. Soft freight volumes across modes in December suggest weather was the main factor improving demand, and shippers may hesitate to restock until the SCOTUS decision.”
The capacity index increased 1.2 points M/M, to 50.1 in December from 48.9 in November, above 50 for the first time since March, but very much in neutral/flat territory.
“Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment,” Vieth said. “Mid-November’s clarity regarding EPA’27 may be helping to reduce the capacity contraction, but prebuying will likely be modest amid limited investment budgets. But as spot rates jumped in December, fleets tapped the brakes on the belt tightening.”
The supply-demand balance increased in December to 61.5 (seasonally adjusted), from 55.7 in November, a four-year high, on improved volumes and balanced capacity related to December’s string of winter storms.
Vieth concluded, “While gains may relax as the weather improves, there are positives entering 2026. The economy continues to exceed expectations, and there are temporary aspects to both the increases in supply and demand this month. Capacity continues to exit the market, though a small prebuy ahead of EPA’27 will slow velocity of tightening, and the potential tailwind of IEEPA tariff reversals seems likelier than not.”
