The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance remained tight in May, as capacity increases outpaced volume improvement.
The volume index increased 0.8 points to 67.7 seasonally adjusted in May from 66.9 in April, a five-and-half-year high.
“As emphasized by the sharp decline in in the driver availability index since January, and the slowly increasing capacity index, this is largely a supply-driven recovery,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “Low inventory levels make a case for a restock this year, though inflation continues to weigh on consumers, and still-elevated interest rates are holding back key freight generators such as housing. For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from growing capacity constraints even in a soft demand environment. Vocational markets and flatbed are among the strongest areas for demand, supporting the data center buildout.”
The capacity index increased 3.2 points M/M, to 53.5 in May from 50.2 in April, a three-year high.
“Rising freight rates are signaling capacity to expand again, but this is no small feat given the long trough for-hire carriers are climbing out of and driver availability declining,” Vieth said. “Increased truck orders since the news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but U.S. tractor sales have remained below replacement on limited capex budgets. Prebuying will be largely limited in 2H’26 to large, well-capitalized fleets, but the tractor population overall is expected to decline in 2026.”
The supply-demand balance firmly remained in tight territory in May, but eased slightly M/M at 64.2, from 66.7 (seasonally adjusted) in April, as capacity increases outpaced volume improvement.
“Capacity, at a broad level, continues to exit the market even with growing prebuy demand ahead of EPA’27, as new FMCSA rules remove drivers. Volumes continue to signal strengthening for-hire volumes,” Vieth concluded. “While this seems inconsistent with a supply-driven cycle, improving volumes at the quality medium and large fleets in our survey sample are more likely the result of reduced industry capacity than goods demand trends. While the economy looks more likely than not to keep chugging along, associated K-shaped risks may still lead to an uneven demand environment. But supply is likely to remain tight.”
