The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance decreased in October, as freight volumes and capacity declined.
The volume index decreased 8.1 points to 47.0 seasonally adjusted (seasonally adjusted) in October, from September’s 13-month high of 55.1.
“The payback period we’ve oft mentioned following pull-forwards appears to be roosting in Q4. While consumers have so far remained resilient, evidence from industry participants points to a muted holiday season, with many equipment suppliers seeing very soft demand ahead of the holidays,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “Other key freight generating industries like manufacturing and housing remain stuck in neutral, or worse. While data center investment growth is keeping the economy afloat, there isn’t a whole lot of freight in a data center. While the outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, just as pre-tariff shipping activity earlier this year was temporary, so too will be the paybacks.”
The capacity index decreased 0.7 points M/M, to 46.8 in October from 47.5 in September.
“Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment. The pullback of private fleets, as well as the necessary evil of small fleet failures, will also continue to tighten capacity,” Vieth said. “Ongoing tariff and regulatory uncertainty are also likely to slow equipment buying in the short term, though recent news from ATA suggesting modified low-NOx rules, rather than an outright delay, could spur some fleet investment.”
The supply-demand balance decreased in October to 50.3 (seasonally adjusted), from 57.6 in September, on weaker volumes as pull-forwards have now given way to an air pocket in Q4/25.
Vieth concluded, “The supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve meaningfully in the short term, as the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs likely lasts a few months. Additionally, goods inflation may pick up as pre-tariff inventories are depleted, but tariff cuts have begun. Lower goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but lower tariffs and the end of the tariff payback may support a recovery.”
