The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) released its May 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market is 59.9, an increase from the April index of 54.6. The index provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion equipment finance industry.
May 2026 Survey Results:
- Business Conditions: When assessing the next four months, 27.3% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, up from 11.8% in April. Those who believe business conditions will remain the same increased to 63.6% from 58.8% the previous month. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen decreased to 9.1% from 29.4% in April.
- CapEx Demand: For the next four months, 26.1% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (up from 10.5% in April). Additionally, 73.9% expect demand to remain the same (up from 68.4% last month), and none believe demand will decline (down from 21.1% in April).
- Access to Capital: Over the next four months, 17.4% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, a decrease from 31.6% in April. The majority (78.3%) anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, an increase from 63.2% the previous month. Those expecting “less” access to capital decreased to 4.4%, down from 5.3% in April.
- Employment: Regarding employment over the next four months, 40.9% of executives expect to hire more employees, a decrease from 42.1% in April. Also, 50% foresee no change in headcount (down from 52.6% last month), and 9.1% expect to hire fewer employees, up from 5.3% in April.
- S. Economy: Of the respondents, 9.1% evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from none in April; 90.9% assess it as “fair,” down from 94.4% last month; and none evaluate it as “poor,” down from 5.6% in April.
- Economic Outlook: Over the next six months, 30.4% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” an increase from 15.8% in April. Another 47.8% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” relatively unchanged from last month; and 21.7% believe economic conditions will worsen, a decrease from 36.8% in April.
- Business Development Spending: Over the next six months, 27.3% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, a decrease from 47.4% in April. Those who believe there will be “no change” in business development spending increased to 68.2% (from 52.6% in April), and 4.6% believe there will be a decrease in spending, up from none last month.
May 2026 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership
Bank, Small Ticket
“Despite geopolitical events and high oil, the economy is still reacting positively. In many ways, we are in unchartered territory. Though we are cautious about the future, we remain optimistic.” Charles Jones, senior vice president at 1st Equipment Finance, said.
“The first quarter was a solid start to the year in terms of new business volume with reasonable yields. Small business appears to be stressed as illustrated by materially increased Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings year over year. This is validated by slight increases in delinquency and normalized credit charges in this specific segment. I expect this to continue for much of 2026. With that said, volume and overall performance are strong and I expect Wintrust Specialty Finance will have a strong year in 2026 as illustrated by the start in Q1,” David Normandin, CLFP, president and CEO of Wintrust Specialty Finance, said.
Independent, Middle Ticket
“Energy shock, inflation and recessionary fears will reduce capex spending, but raise yields as conservative lenders pull back from lending, leaving less competition for remaining required capex spending. Some business models will thrive in this type of economy; equipment finance is one that can operate quite well,” Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO of Elevex Capital, said.
Independent, Small Ticket
“The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is having the effect of driving up fuel costs. The small and mid-sized businesses that don’t have the ability to pass along the higher costs are having the biggest challenge in managing their cash flow as a result,” James D. Jenks, CEO of Global Finance and Leasing Services, said.
