The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance tightened further in April, as freight volumes remained elevated and capacity turned to slight expansion.
The volume index rose 6.0 points to 66.9, seasonally adjusted, in April, a new cycle high.
“In four of the past five months, the volume index has been above 60, a level not reached since December 2021,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “As emphasized by the accelerating decline in the driver availability index and the more chronic decline in the capacity index, this is largely a supply-driven recovery. Lower tariffs may be helping, but despite the May 7 ruling that the latest 10% §122 tariffs are unlawful, shippers may still delay restocking lean inventories until after the July 24 expiration to avoid the legal hassle. Even as the outlook for goods demand worsens on spiking fuel prices, for-hire demand is supported by reduced supply.”
The capacity index increased 1.9 points M/M to 50.2 in April from 48.1 in March, the first time above the neutral 50 level in a year and just the third increase in the past three years.
“Rising freight rates are signaling capacity to expand again, but this is no small challenge, with equipment budgets constrained and driver availability declining,” Vieth said. “Weather also had an effect in January and February, aiding the improvement. Increased truck orders since the recent news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but prebuying will be largely limited to 2H’26, though noncompliance penalties could extend prebuying into early 2027.”
The supply-demand balance tightened further in April to 66.9 from 60.5 (seasonally adjusted) in March, on a strong volume improvement, even as capacity turned from net contraction to slight expansion.
“While this seems inconsistent with a supply-driven cycle, improving volumes at the quality medium and large fleets in our survey sample are more likely the result of reduced industry capacity than goods demand trends,” Vieth said. “The economy is likely to remain uneven, and effects on inflation and interest rates from the war in Iran curtail the demand outlook, but lower tariffs partly offset these effects. And capacity continues to exit the market, even with growing prebuy demand ahead of EPA’27, largely as new FMCSA rules remove drivers.”
