The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) released its June 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market is 63.7, an increase from the May index of 59.9, and the second consecutive increase since the start of the war in Iran. The index provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion equipment finance industry.
June 2026 Survey Results:
- Business Conditions: When assessing the next four months, 30.4% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, up from 27.3% in May. Those who believe business conditions will remain the same increased to 65.2% from 63.6% the previous month. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen decreased to 4.4% from 9.1% in May.
- CapEx Demand: For the next four months, 31.8% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (up from 26.1% in May). Additionally, 59.1% expect demand to remain the same (down from 73.9% last month), and 9.1% believe demand will decline (up from none in May).
- Access to Capital: Over the next four months, 27.3% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, an increase from 17.4% in May. The majority (72.7%) anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 78.3% the previous month. None expect “less” access to capital, down from 4.4% in May.
- Employment: Regarding employment over the next four months, 50% of executives expect to hire more employees, an increase from 40.9% in May. Also, 50% foresee no change in headcount (unchanged from last month), and none expect to hire fewer employees, down from 9.1% in May.
- S. Economy: Of the respondents, 8.3% evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” down slightly from 9.1% in May; 87.5% assess it as “fair,” down from 90.9% last month; and 4.2% evaluate it as “poor,” up from none in May.
- Economic Outlook: Over the next six months, 25% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a decrease from 30.4% in May. Another 50% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” up from 47.8% last month; and 25% believe economic conditions will worsen, an increase from 21.7% in May.
- Business Development Spending: Over the next six months, 45.8% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, an increase from 27.3% in May. Those who believe there will be “no change” in business development spending decreased to 54.2% (from 68.2% in May), and none believe there will be a decrease in spending, down from 4.6% last month.
June 2026 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership
Bank, Small Ticket
“As we approach the first half of 2026, the year continues to have many twists and turns that require diligent and consistent discipline to perform through,” David Normandin, CLFP, president and CEO of Wintrust Specialty Finance, said. “Specifically, new business volume continues to be good in some markets and not in others. Additionally, the volatile SWAP market is a challenge to manage expectations and retain margins while the Fed is likely to increase rates rather than reduce rates in 2026. The material increase in Chapter 11 bankruptcy year over year is also valuable to pay attention to and consider if there are lessons to be learned in your organization that would protect your portfolio in the future. With that said, Wintrust Specialty Finance continues to have a solid year, and I am confident that we will continue to find the opportunities to succeed in the remainder of 2026.”
Captive, Small Ticket
“I feel more positive about the U.S. economy over the next six months. Recent data shows a strong job market, and steady consumer spending, which suggest a solid base for growth,” Jim DeFrank, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Isuzu Finance of America, said. “There are still some risks, especially from global events and policy changes, but overall, the outlook seems encouraging, with more reasons to feel confident than worried in the near term.”
Independent, Middle Ticket
“I’m currently concerned about inflation and supply chain risks with global economic uncertainty beginning to weigh on U.S. markets,” Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO of Elevex Capital, said.
Independent, Small Ticket
“When the Iran war is settled, the U.S. economy should pick up considerably,” James D. Jenks, CEO of Global Finance and Leasing Services, said.
