According to the Washington Post, the manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time since 2009, with the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) falling to 49.9 in August from 50.4 in July.

The Post reports the likely cause is the still-hot trade war between the U.S. and China, as falling exports have in turn led to reduced inventories and production.

The Post adds that while the contraction is so far small, it is another sign of possible recession after an inverted yield curve developed earlier this month and the adjusted job numbers for 2018 saw a half million fewer jobs than initially reported.