ACT Achieves 98% Accuracy Truckload Spot Rate Forecasting in 2019



ACT Research released the January installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors.

The ACT Freight Forecast provides three-year forecasts for volumes and contract rates for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal segments of the transportation industry, and for the truckload spot market, the report forecasts the next 12 months. The Freight Forecast provides detail on the future of freight rates, helping businesses across the supply chain plan their businesses with greater certainty.

Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst, said, “With the 2019 spot market data now complete, our truckload spot rate forecasts achieved 98% accuracy on average. In fact, in the first report we released in February 2019, our Q4/19 and full-year 2019 truckload spot rate were on target down to the penny. We’re very thankful to all of the subscribers who have supported this research. What differentiates our service is an unparalleled understanding of Class 8 tractor capacity. Our data science tells us capacity is the main driver of rates in the long-term.”

ACT’s Truckload Rate Gauge has begun to show a more balanced environment but continues to favor shippers as we enter 2020. The freight volume downturn is not over yet and the capacity rebalancing is still in the early stages, but ACT expects gradual improvement to continue over the course of the year.

Themes for 2020 explored in this month’s report include:

  • Capacity Rebalancing
  • Spot Rates Turning Positive
  • Trade Policy/Industrial Downturn
  • End of the Freight Recession
  • How Contract Rates Could Turn Positive in 2020
  • Looking Forward to 2021

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Terry Mulreany
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