According to ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer report, July net U.S. trailer orders of 8,128 units fell nearly 26% compared with June and were almost 58% lower compared with July of 2020. Before accounting for cancellations, new orders of 9,500 units were down more than 27% compared with June and 53% lower than last July. Year-to-date net orders for the first half of 2021 were up more than 75%, while new orders grew about 52% compared with the COVID-19-stricken beginning of 2020.

“With significant reluctance to accept further orders in the high-volume dry van and reefer categories, the timing of ‘officially’ opening 2022 orderbooks is a major question for the industry,” Frank Maly, director of commercial vehicle transportation analysis and research at ACT Research, said. “How coordinated the timing of that opening by the OEMs is a second major question. While order volumes have remained low, there is no question that negotiations have continued. Once orders are again accepted, expect a flood that could consume a significant portion of the remaining 2022 production slots.

“The unknown there is how quickly OEMs will be able to ramp production, which will correspondingly impact their pace of order acceptance. We already have orderboards that extend into Q2/22 on average. For reference, remember the order surge that occurred in late 2018, which immediately pushed commitments through Q3 of the next year. A similar pattern could well be in the offing. Of course, pricing, which is still under development, will also have a major impact on that order pace.”