According to a new forecast from International Data Corporation’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, worldwide shipments of PCs are expected to grow 14.2% to 347 million units in 2021. This is down from IDC’s May forecast of 18% growth, with continued supply chain and logistical challenges cited as the main reasons for the decline. The tablet market is also expected to grow in 2021 but at a much slower pace of 3.4%.

“We continue to believe the PC and tablet markets are supply constrained and that demand is still there,” Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said. “The lengthening of the supply shortages combined with ongoing logistical issues are presenting the industry with some big challenges. However, we believe the vast majority of PC demand is non-perishable, especially from the business and education sectors.”

Over the report’s full 2021 to 2025 forecast period, traditional PCs (which include desktops, notebooks and workstations) are expected to have a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, while tablets are expected to decline 1.5%. Despite short-term supply constraints related to panels and ICs, notebook PCs will remain the main driver of future PC growth.

Personal computing devices have played an instrumental role in many consumers’ lives over the last 18 months, enabling individuals to work, learn, game and connect from home despite lockdowns and social distancing. Although COVID-19 cases are resurgent, eventually a level of normalcy will return. Even then, IDC expects personal computing devices to retain a central role in the personal lives of most.

“How much is this newfound PC centricity worth?” Linn Huang, research vice president of devices and displays at IDC, asked. “In November of 2019, we published our last pre-pandemic forecast, which stretched out to 2023. At that juncture, we projected a total market of 367 million units in 2023. Today, we are expecting over half a billion units of personal computing devices to be shipped that year. So how much is that compute centricity worth? A simplified view would suggest about 135 million units or 37% more than the original market forecast.”

In the latter years of the forecast, consumer spending is expected to rebalance toward travel and leisure — which are the categories of spending that have suffered the most during the various states of lockdown — and away from technology. Additionally, the strong quarterly performances over the last year will eventually catch up with the market and drive unreachable comparisons, according to IDC. In short, a market slowdown is inevitable. However, even when it does occur, the total available market for personal computing devices will be significantly greater than it would have been if not for the months spent working, learning, gaming and connecting on these devices during the pandemic.