Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s U.S. macro strategy team released its 2024 outlook report, titled “Getting Back in Sync?” The report provides a forward-looking perspective on the U.S. fixed income markets and the macroeconomic factors impacting the U.S. economy in the next 12 months.
“The U.S. economy has dodged exogenous shocks relatively well so far, but in our view, many segments in the economy are still out of sync,” George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, said.
In the report, Goncalves and the rest of the firm’s macro strategy team looked at the various economic scenarios for 2024, writing that the best case is a mild U.S. recession — a bumpy landing — for next year.
“Although still our base-case, we have been taking down our recession odds post the height of the regional banking crisis,” Goncalves said. “Lending has stalled, but we did not have a fire-sale event nor a credit crunch. Overall, it is possible to dodge a recession if the Federal Reserve and fiscal agents are to ease even further and if bank lending returns. Yet, that seems unlikely for now, so we see more of a mild recession before sustained growth.”
Key Takeaways for Fixed Income Markets
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