According to American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, the turnover rate at truckload carriers surged in Q2/17, a sign that the market for drivers is quickly tightening.

“We saw double digit gains in the annualized turnover rate for both small and large truckload fleets,” Costello said. “After a period of relatively low turnover, it appears the driver market is tightening again, which coupled with increased demand for freight movement, could rapidly exacerbate the driver shortage.”

According to ATA’s quarterly report, the turnover rate at large truckload carriers jumped 16 percentage points to 90% – the highest it has been since Q4/15. The 16-point increase is the largest quarterly jump since the Q4/10.

At smaller carriers, fleets with less than $30 million in annual revenue, the turnover rate swelled by 19 percentage points to 85%, the highest it has been since Q1/16.

The turnover picture at less-than-truckload fleets was more muddled, with over-the-road LTL turnover dipping one point to 9%, but the rate for local LTL drivers was 14%, up two percentage points from the previous quarter and the highest rate in three years.

“We predicted that last year’s period of relatively low and stable turnover could be short-lived if the freight economy recovered from 2016’s freight recession,” Costello said. “It appears those predictions were correct and we may be seeing the beginnings of a significant tightening of the driver market and acceleration of the driver shortage.”