In the recent release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that its analysts are less confident that supply chain issues will subside enough for commercial vehicle OEMs to fully meet customer demand this year and next.

“Recent commentary from leaders in the semiconductor industry point to a more cautious outlook for longer. ASML, a key supplier of semiconductor production equipment, recently called out a ‘significant shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity this year and next,’” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. “In light of this and other industry commentary, we believe lower-for-longer chip availability is likely to restrain the industry’s ability to meet otherwise-strong customer demand.”

Vieth also mentioned additional downside risks, saying, “Moreover, about half of the global supply of neon, critical for chipmaking, is concentrated in Odessa, Ukraine, where production has been down since February. The gases that were purified in Ukraine were generated by Russian steel manufacturers. A scramble to re-source is on and inventories are limited.”

Despite these production challenges, ACT Research continues to expect higher build rates.

“Carrier profitability is robust. We expect any recession to be shallow and short-lived at this point, and our Class 8 models are indicating pent-up demand, as well as prebuying potential in advance of CARB’s costly Clean Truck mandate,” Vieth said.