ACT Research: Production Potential is 2021’s Commercial Vehicle Challenge

In the recent release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that the question of commercial vehicle demand for 2021 has been answered, but questions remain about the industry’s ability to meet that level of demand.

“This year’s challenge is to ascertain the impact of supply constraints on 2021’s production potential, and the two numbers that get to the heart of identifying the near-term production ramp are units-per-day and days-per-period,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. “The timing of a 100 units-per-day swing from assumption to reality can still have a material impact on full-year output.

“Additionally, there is a third, hidden factor that is likely to come into play at some point in the coming months: the completion of ‘red-tagged’ units [those units that are essentially built but unfinished and waiting for parts]. Based on anecdotal conversations, we would put the current number of red-tagged units at around 5,000 units industry-wide. Given demand conditions, we reiterate that when the inflection comes, it will be exceedingly sharp, and that’s why we’re advising our clients to be prepared.”

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