Beige Book: U.S. Economic Activity 'Continues to Improve'



U.S. economic activity “generally continued to improve” in March and early April, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from each of the 12 Fed districts. This movement is a continuation of the increase in activity that all of the districts reported in the last Beige Book, which covered January into February.

While many districts described the improvements as only moderate, most districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors, and Kansas City described its economic gains as solid.

Most districts cited loan demand as either unchanged or slightly improved since the last report, although many of the districts citing improvements noted weak demand in some market segments. Banks in the Chicago district noted that their pipeline was still not robust, although manufacturing, food processing, and healthcare experienced some growth. Cleveland reported that business lending was strongest in healthcare and in energy. Consumer loan demand showed some improvement in the Richmond and San Francisco districts, but was little changed in the Chicago district. Overall loan demand was weak or little changed in the Philadelphia and Kansas City districts, although Philadelphia noted some improvement in commercial and industrial loans and in some types of commercial real estate loans. However, New York described household demand (for both consumer loans and mortgages) as weakening in its district, and St. Louis noted declines across most segments of its market, including real estate, commercial and industrial, and personal loans.

Several districts reported that credit standards were unchanged or slightly tighter and that competition for quality loans was intense. For example, Cleveland described credit standards as unchanged, while New York noted no change for consumer loans but tightening for other categories in its district. San Francisco noted that credit standards remained somewhat restrictive. Cleveland characterized loan quality as stable or slightly improved and delinquency rates as stable or trending down. However, New York mentioned an uptick in delinquency rates for commercial and industrial loans. Competition for quality loans was described as intense in the Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco districts, putting downward pressures on rates and fees.

The Beige Book indicates that despite economic improvement, recovery is hindered by concerns regarding the cost of oil and raw materials.

To read the entire Federal Reserve Beige Book report, click here.


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Terry Mulreany
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