According to ACT Research’s recently-released edition of Charging Forward, a multi-client decarbonization study of the U.S. commercial vehicle market, the adoption rates for zero-emission and decarbonization vehicles will reach 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.

Regulations are a key factor in the earlier years of the projections, particularly for higher GVW applications, while many lower GVW applications already provide a better total cost of ownership today.

“We forecast a relatively low adoption rate from 2024 through 2026, reflecting the fact that BEV sales of commercial vehicles are still in their early years,” Ann Rundle, vice president of electrification and autonomy with ACT Research, said. “This begins to change in 2027, in part due to the cost increases for diesels because of the increased stringency of U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. In addition, by 2027, eight states will have joined California in adopting advanced clean trucks, resulting in moderate growth in adoption rates.”

By 2030, ACT Research is forecasting 25% adoption rates of zero-emission vehicles, as by then the remaining nine states that signed the MOU to adopt California Air Resources Board advanced clean trucks will have enacted those regulations. Additionally, it is assumed that improved battery technology will negate battery replacement costs and charging infrastructure utilization will significantly increase, decreasing those total cost of ownership.

“By 2040, we are forecasting that adoption of [zero emission vehicles] will account for just slightly above 50%; essentially half of all [commercial vehicles] will be zero emissions, primarily [battery electric vehicles],” Rundle said.