ACT Research Reports Slightly Lowered Forecasts as Fed Continues to Raise Rates

In the latest release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported slightly lowered forecasts due to the Federal Reserve’s continued action toward inflation, which it says is disproportionally impacting the freight economy.

“ACT’s forecasts into the medium term move incrementally lower this month on the continued deterioration of economic expectations,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “Inflation looks more stubborn and the Federal Reserve’s increasingly resolute rhetoric shows a willingness to do whatever is required to bring inflation to long-term targets of around 2%.

“Importantly, for an industry that relies on the manufacturing and distribution of goods, changes to economic expectations are even more impactful to the freight economy. ACT’s freight composite drops as rates-sensitive economic sectors (durables, investment, housing) are disproportionally impacted.

“Spot rates continued to edge lower in September. ACT’s aggregation of DAT’s rate data showed slight sequential deterioration in spot freight rates on an absolute as well as seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. September spot rates averaged $1.96 net fuel, down 3% from August, while the SA spot rate declined 4%. Anecdotes indicate that contract rate negotiations are running south of -10%.”

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